The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
think-tank is closely wed to the corridors of American power. If you listen to
NPR or BBC, you're already familiar with the organisation and Anthony Cordesman
is an old familiar voice.
Astute, analytic and by all appearances balanced, the CSIS in
actuality is an important think-tank for both Atlanticism and the American
Empire which dominates it. There is an inherent bias in its reasoning and yet
the organisation is not given to either fanaticism or sensationalism. It
belongs with the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a few other
organisations to a category that might be described as trans-political.
In other words it represents an Establishment that transcends
the American political divide. Neo-Conservatives roll their eyes when organisations
like the CSIS and CFR are mentioned. These are the dull-minded dinosaurs, the
ivory tower academics, the staid and safe thinkers who have for the sake of
peace and stability sold out the American colossus. These are the people that
are loathed by the Trumpites and while the feeling is mutual to some degree,
the Establishment types are careful. They're the types that focus on the
forest, not the trees and they realise the American Empire is bigger than an
individual president and that a president is only as powerful as his team.
Without advisors and people to execute policy the president will quickly become
marginalised.
Rather than slip into alarmism and fall prey to reaction they
are the types who would rather have quiet meetings, make phone calls and do
what they can to work the system and circumvent the influence of someone like
Trump and the members of his unilateralist cabal.
I say all this simply to point out that Cordesman and the
CSIS are neither more nor less pernicious than others in power. They are not
stupid people. They wield a great deal of influence. They are the intellectuals
that overlap with the American Mandarin class and within their circles, they
are capable of wielding significant influence.
I pay attention to what they say because it's a window into
how the Establishment is thinking in terms of foreign policy and with regard to
military matters. I don't necessarily believe everything that's said and I
certainly don't agree with their general viewpoint. But when they issue
statements or make statements on the news it tells me something.
There is a sense of alarm at the moment. Trump's policies are
alienating longtime US satellites, satraps or to use the accepted euphemistic
parlance, allies. Trump tends to view alliances solely in terms of what's in it
for the United States. He lashes out at those who do not express proper
deference and even a willingness to do harm to themselves... just for the
honour of staying within the good graces of Washington. He castigates those who
are 'getting' something from the United States. A spoiled and sociopathic child,
the current president does not understand that the Empire works by means of
proxies and that it must support them and enrich their ruling class in order to
maintain loyalty. When he humiliates them, ignores them and merely threatens
them, he drives them away. What someone like Cordesman understands in a way
that Trump doesn't is that the threat is always there but you don't have to
broadcast and trumpet your power to the world by means of intimidation. A
strong leader can be respected without having to become a bully or a tyrant.
As a consequence of Trump's policies and style the Atlantic
alliance is under stress and indeed US influence is starting to slip across the
wider globe. If this wasn't alarming enough for an organisation like the CSIS,
the fact that Beijing has at the same time launched its One Belt One Road (OBOR)
project, the US Establishment has been presented with a formula for potential
disaster. OBOR represents a threat to US imperial power and unipolarity. It's a
subtle threat in many ways, like a slow-moving missile, but it has the
potential to not only to woo and pull away US allies and proxies but to
eventually overthrow the US dominated global economic system.
This CSIS article on Uganda provides some focus with regard
to this otherwise broad, nebulous and even confusing complex of issues. Here's
where the proverbial rubber meets the road.
My fear is that the United States might react with hostility
toward continued moves by Uganda in the direction of Beijing. If even the CSIS
is sounding the alarm, that's a signal that it's not just the Trump people who
might be alarmed... even though they (at least in part) are aggravating the
situation... but even the mainstream is getting upset. And if that's the case
the United States may act. Political unity will allow it to happen.
And what might they do? Well, the list is long but given the
tense situation in the African Great Lakes Region and in neighbouring Congo
(DRC), it's not too hard to imagine a scenario in which violence flares up,
paramilitaries are supplied and supported and war fragments the region. The US
can profit from such situations in a way that Beijing's OBOR project cannot.
What I fear is that as China expands its interest and deeply
invests in these regions... that they too will begin to fund proxy fighting
forces and portions of Africa, Asia, Latin America the Middle East and maybe
even Europe will fall prey to conflict. Let's hope not. Let's hope cooler heads
prevail but if the CSIS is getting agitated it means that things are moving
along. They're sending a signal to the US political, military and intelligence
Establishments that it's time to start acting... before it's too late.
Of course there's a great irony in the CSIS report. Ugandan
president Museveni is criticised even though the US has been backing him for
decades. The question of Uganda being stressed by refugees is being used as a
fulcrum for argument, even though the wars in South Sudan, DR Congo and Burundi
are all conflicts that American regional proxies Uganda and Rwanda have been
involved in... in conjunction with US policy. In many ways this article is
riddled with falsehoods. Not in what it says per se but in how the questions
are framed. It's not about truth but about a declaration of policy and
strategy.
The CSIS article represents a shot across the bow for
Uganda's Museveni and I'm sure he's taken note of it. The CSIS is comparing him
to Mugabe. That's a signal. That's a warning. Museveni has been pursuing his
own path when it comes to South Sudan and he's grown too dependent on China.
It's also a signal to the US Establishment... pay attention,
we're losing our satrapies. They are defecting and being wooed away by Beijing.
The article of course must engage in a little China bashing as well but this is
to be expected.
The article also touched on something that's been weighing
heavily on me as of late as I consider the turmoil in places like Nigeria,
Congo and the Central African Republic (CAR). It's frustrating because the
mainstream media tends to downplay some of the religious elements to these
conflicts while Christian media focuses almost exclusively on them... and yet
continues to ignore the question of population growth. If you look into it,
it's pretty staggering and we're on the cusp of a massive (even exponential)
population explosion in Sub-Saharan Africa. Like it or not this is playing a
huge role in creating the instability and its fueling an already burning fire.
Population growth is a source of alarm for many in the West.
Despite Western Conservative rejections (rooted in ideology and politics) of a
population crisis the reality is that Africa is already feeling the stress. The
European immigration crisis has been fueled by wars and instability throughout
Africa and the Middle East. The Western Order has played no small part in
exacerbating these situations. However on another level the problem is even
more basic... the populations are growing rapidly and there simply aren't
enough resources. Corrupt Evangelical mouthpieces assure us there's plenty of
land and that the world could easily sustain many more billions of people. The
reality is the world is already being pushed to the breaking point and the
stress is being felt most acutely in places like Africa and Asia. Mere land
area and resource reserves, supposedly brute statistics don't tell the whole
story. It's always more complicated. There are logistics involved both in terms
of transport, accessibility and extraction. Land can be plowed but it must be
watered and what will that water usage do to other economies and populations?
Forests can be cut and hillsides can be mined but what societies are destroyed
in the process? People are flowing into the cities and it's not just because
they're pursuing economic hopes. The hinterlands are riddled with instability
and economic disaster and it all goes hand in hand. To suggest that if there
was sound and strong government and if people would just quit fighting is to
oversimplify the situation. It would bring economic prosperity some argue. The
instability isn't feeding economic collapse. The economic collapse is due to population
and resource exploitation. The economic stress fuels migration and war. It's a
death spiral.
There are millions of young men out of work and many have no
prospects, no hope of taking a wife, owning a home or raising a family. They
can turn to crime. They can pick up a gun or they can flee to the lands of the
Western empires and find work and if they're lucky (humanly speaking) they
might be able to get somewhere and find a better life. Like it or not, they're
coming.
Further the strong centralised states that are needed to
bring stability are doomed to fail in many cases as the maps drawn by the
colonial powers have never reflected reality. They served the interest of the
Europeans but only created unstable and ungovernable states that easily fall
prey to failure, factionalism and infiltration.
But both Europe, the US and even nations like Australia are
unwilling to have their countries overrun with immigrants, nor are they willing
to deal with the ramifications of such demographic shifts, economic upheaval
and potential political instability. They want to stop this flow... a flow they
have in part created... a flow that some would work to stop in a 'humane' way
but at the same time are opposed by ideologues (across the political spectrum)
within their own societies. Some are outraged at the walls being thrown up.
Others are outraged that the governments aren't being aggressive enough. Hence
the rise of a figure like Italy's Matteo Salvini.
What to do? From the standpoint of the Western Establishment
represented by the CSIS, they would certainly want to take steps to reduce
population growth, alleviate suffering and thus reduce migration. They would
find ways to create political stability and generate sustainable economies.
Easily said but the tasks are daunting even for those wielding all the tools of
power. Unless you can solve multiple highly complex problems all at once,
solving one problem will create more and the spiral of instability is
perpetual.
The Christian answer is both complex and simple. We are
strangers and pilgrims and our interests do not overlap with the interests of
the political powers. We are (or ought to be) internationalist in our outlook.
By internationalist I am not suggesting we are trying to achieve a stateless or
one-world state. We are not even to labour in such fields and such visions are
fruitless and vain. The world will continue to be plagued by wars and rumours
of wars and nation will rise against nation. That is the decreed path for this
age and it will not change this side of glory.
While we cannot support many of the plans and projects which
seek to limit population growth and control resources at the same time we can
hardly be surprised that governments will resort to such measures. Likewise we
shouldn't be surprised that states will seek to protect their borders, their
possessions and the like. We cannot, like the myriad of theologically
compromised Western Evangelicals share their nation focused visions and
viewpoints. We are not committed to any nation, least of all empires. We are
part of a Kingdom that transcends all borders, indeed this very age.
The Kingdom is not built through forced moral conformity or
through coerced Christian conduct. The Kingdom is built through the Holy Spirit
working through the Church. Sadly the history of the Church has been one of
betrayals, defections, apostasy and deals with the Devil and his agents. There
has only ever been a remnant that has made an attempt to faithfully follow the
Prince of Peace.
The world will pursue its courses. Trying to fight these
states, even as they attempt to plaster over mortal wounds is not our province
nor or mandate. We are to bear witness and as the Church we can certainly
extend a helping hand to the suffering. It's right that Christians are
labouring in these fields to bring food and aid to the refugee. This should be
done in a non-political way and while we try to obey the laws of the land, we
ought not to let our Kingdom ethics be quashed by the state. Christians should
help refugees and immigrants. The ethic of mine
and thine and you can't have mine
is not born of Scripture but of the world and its philosophies. The fact that
the Church is riddled with mercenary theologians and false prophets who teach
otherwise is nothing new. And don't think such Balaam's are only to be found in
the ranks of theological liberalism and the prosperity sects. They are also ubiquitous
in Evangelical circles and even within the bastions of Protestant
Confessionalism.
Regardless of what we say or do the powers that be will seek
their own interests. The world by Divine Providence has come to this point and
the 21st century is likely to be an era of endless war and conflict.
The dystopian vision predicted by 20th century thinkers will likely
come to pass but of course in ways different than they imagined. Some of us
live in the imperial fortress, the worldly Elysium that is the West. Of course,
it's not quite so blissful for all who live here. Many professing Christians
embrace this regime and want to defend this order to the death. Those of us who
wish to take the Scriptures seriously need to re-think our place in this
cultural and political structure. We also need to reconsider our values, our
assumptions about our society and many certainly need to reconsider their
commitments. Christ or America? Christ or the West? It comes down to a choice.
Those who equate them are lying to you. They are bestial agents. Friendship
with the world is enmity with God. Sometimes it really is rather simple. What
if we put it in even more simple terms... Christ or Mammon? The answer is clear
and yet again, there are scores of Evangelical and even Confessional leaders
who say there is no choice, no dilemma. They are liars and they make Christ a
liar.
The world and society as we know it are on the verge of great
change. There are going to be fires that cannot be put out. The powers that be
and their prophets are going to make impassioned pleas and do all they can to
convince you to defend society's interest, to build walls, to fight wars and
justify their theft of resources and the destruction of realms so that a
standard of living can be maintained.
These powers are watching, preparing and acting even as we
speak. The unrest is political... a story of nations and forces trying to carve
up a game board that was set thirty years ago in the ashes of 1989. But there's
also a long war taking place, a war for resources and control that began in
earnest in 2001 and will likely continue for decades to come.
We can get caught up in it, or we can understand what's
happening, proclaim the truth (offering both hope and warning) and do what
little we can (humanly speaking) to help and reach out to the lost and
suffering of the world. Clothe the poor and feed the hungry but even more than
that focus on the things that really matter, focus on the gospel. We cannot
preach it with integrity, nor can we bring even a pretended 'justice' to the
world when we are invested in the systems and empires which are starting and
feeding the fires. There are some in the West that see the injustice but they
would fix it by using the powers of empire (and its tools) to bring about the
change. This is delusion and itself immoral.
They want to bring change but the change must begin with us.
Living the middle class dream is incompatible with Biblical values and for
those concerned about the course of the world and the outrages that are taking
place in Africa and elsewhere, they need to understand that as long as you're
plugged into the system... the system the CSIS represents... then you're part
of it, you're part of the problem. Until we Western Christians re-think money,
power, work and our definitions of 'success' and respectability we're part of
the CSIS driven machine, we're part of the Empire and no pilgrims. Our
loyalties are divided.
The refugees are being forced to live as strangers. They're
(ironically) living out a type of Christian calling and ethos... one we like to
talk about but are unwilling to actually live and apply. We cannot bear the
shame. We cannot bear the hardship. We love this world far too much.
For those that choose to ignore these dilemmas, you can
continue to run but you cannot hide. The crisis is coming and like it or not we
will all have to reckon with what it means to follow Christ. Most of the
Evangelical world has already made its choice. Fifteen to twenty percent
returns on investment for their portfolios has won them over. When it comes to
Wall Street versus Zion, the winner is clear. And just in case they feel guilty
about it they will continue to feed the financial Balaam's who tell them it's
all right. Financial peace is yours to have. God is with you. Don't be
concerned about the world order. Peace, peace is yours to have. This system
promotes human happiness and the flourishing of society or so we're told by
those who make merchandise of God's people.
Tell that to refugees from Sudan and Nigeria who are caught
in the middle of Wall Street's wars for oil. Tell that to the refugee from
Eastern Congo who has fled the paramilitaries who guard the mines and control
the routes which ship the minerals to the West... so that your pampered spoiled
teenager can have the latest iPhone as they head off to Christian college and
sell themselves into debt to the US financial system. It's a vicious cycle.
See also: