20 November 2020

Afghanistan and Iraq at the End of the Trump Era

The panicked reaction to Trump's planned troop withdrawal from both Iraq and Afghanistan has been palpable. The media and the US Establishment in general are hostile to the move and trying to sound the alarm. And yet at the same time they struggle with providing solid reasons for remaining in these seemingly endless conflicts – both of which have gone sideways and evolved into something other than what they originally were purported to be.


After the WMD debacle and the Sunni-Shiite Civil War, Iraq morphed into a fight against ISIS which at this point has largely been defeated – at least within Iraq's boundaries. The elements that survive have gone deep underground.

In Afghanistan, the supposed justification for the 2001 invasion was the fact that the Taliban was harbouring bin Laden and the core of al Qaeda, but that reality no longer existed by the end of 2001 when the leadership escaped into Pakistan. The war then expanded in Pakistan and as of today the US relationship with Islamabad is shaky and continuing to deteriorate. The Taliban was never really defeated. Instead several versions of the movement emerged on both sides of the British-drawn Durand Line which provides the modern Afghan-Pakistani border. ISIS also has a presence in Afghanistan and in addition to fighting the US is engaged in combat operations against the Taliban. Both are Sunni groups but they approach their Salafism from very different vantage points and are in conflict.

The full cynicism of the Afghan conflict is on display in the recent reports that suggest the US is aiding the Taliban in their fight against ISIS. The latter, an apocalyptic death-cult was initially backed by the US in Syria but it quickly evolved and declaring a caliphate, became a dangerous global movement that rivals and contradicts some of the claims and methods of al Qaeda. The Taliban for its part has always been regional and largely limited to the Pashtun people and thus its sphere does not extend beyond the Central Asia-Subcontinent fault-lines.

Trump for his part in calling for troop reductions is reaching out to his base. I can think of several people I know – blue collar types that a generation ago would have supported someone like Joe Biden but today, they're Trumpites. Part of the grief and protest is with regard to US foreign policy. They don't understand contemporary geopolitics and haven't since the end of the Cold War – when the provided (if disingenuous) narrative was about as simple and straightforward as can be. The propaganda campaigns around Iraq and Afghanistan have not held up and while some still might think the US is in Afghanistan because of women wearing burqas they are terribly mistaken. This frustration has translated into a desire for these wars to end.

One very ignorant man I know spouted off some time ago that the United States should get out of the Middle East and let those people kill each other. We should quit trying to stop them or fix it.

Indeed, the people there do wish that the US had not intervened and this man's statement reveals his stunning ignorance of just what has happened in that part of the world over the past century – and especially over the past thirty plus years. The US has played a central role in tearing the Middle East apart and bears great responsibility for the now millions of deaths that have occurred over since at least the time of Ronald Reagan.

But for the Trumpite base – all they know is Americans are dying in endless, pointless conflicts and they want it to end. These wars won't end with ticker-tape parades down the Canyon of Heroes. And I think all the empty platitudes about 'supporting the troops' are wearing pretty thin even in the American heartland. These phrases, these ideas, have no meaning and people are sick of hearing about these places they've come to hate. Nothing has worked out, there's no democracy in these places (as indeed any freshman analyst might have told them), and the US has reaped no reward – the resources still aren't really available. Where's the cheap oil for example? Why have over five thousand US soldiers died? I could mention the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Afghanis but it would be pointless. I'm sorry to say it, but most Americans couldn't care less. The one sector that has really made out – is the defense industry. Untold millions have been made since 2001 and millions (and perhaps billions) have disappeared, unaccounted for into the hands of contractors and other war profiteers – often for work that was never done and for equipment and infrastructure that doesn't work or was never completed. Fortunes have been made but the balance sheets are far removed from the American public and the working class people that threw away their lives and often took others in the process – an endless meat grinder leading to despair and broken societies, profits built on blood.

For my part I would be glad if the US packed up and left. Wouldn't that be irresponsible someone might ask? I don't see how one can easily attach a moral imperative to immoral and criminal acts – let alone legal theft and murder. Yes, a rapid US withdrawal will foment some instability but think about that for a moment. Has there really been stability all these years? The US-sponsored Afghan government controls very little beyond some of the small urban centres and most of the countryside is under control of the Taliban – especially once the sun goes down. Will ISIS proliferate? They might, but the Taliban will fight them and besides I cannot see that the US has any moral standing when it comes to ISIS or the Taliban given how they've used both. Remember many of the elements and even some of the commanders within the Taliban (and al Qaeda) were US allies in the 1980's war against the Soviets.

As far as Iraq goes, a US withdrawal will mean that a large swathe of the country will fall under Iranian sway – which is pretty much the on-the-ground reality anyway. Iran was the big winner in terms of the Bush policy toward Iraq. People tried to tell him that but he let the likes of Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Wolfowitz dictate the policy and once again they were proven wrong – on just about everything. It's bad enough being evil but throw in incompetence and you can have a real mess on your hands.

The Sunnis will fight and it may destabilise the region and spread into Syria. Oh but wait, all of this already happened ten years ago and did the US prevent this? The US caused it and created the conditions for it. Some will point to Obama's withdrawal in 2011 and say that opened the door for the chaos in Syria and the rise of ISIS but this is disingenuous. The US was actively playing a role in those events. Again, if the US would just leave the region will eventually find a modus vivendi. It may not be what the US wants but unless Washington is prepared to invest billions more and the lives of many soldiers over the coming decades – there's no other way. Some will admit this cost is worth it in order to maintain US hegemony. What the US has been doing is trying to maintain a hold on the cheap. It won't stand and much of the US public has had it.

Here are some ugly truths that no American politician will openly say. The US Establishment wants to hold on to Iraq in order to keep a strategic foothold in the wider region and check Iranian aspirations. The US (along with Israel) has been waging a fairly aggressive clandestine war against Tehran. They're murdering people, blowing things up, doing all they can to sabotage Iranian influence. It's somewhat reminiscent of US policy toward Cuba in the 1960's and after. Our media is largely silent about this. The US wants to remain and continue to steer Iraqi politics with an eventual goal of controlling its oil resources and influencing the wider region. The Neo-Conservative dream of regional transformation hasn't been abandoned. It's bipartisan and mainstream and it's alive and well in the Biden camp.

In Afghanistan, there are still those who dream of pipelines connected to Central Asia and yet now China has set up shop on the Pakistani coast. The Sindh and Balochistan are quickly becoming the stomping grounds of the Chinese merchants. Afghanistan also sits on vast undeveloped mineral wealth. If the US leaves, the Chinese will move in and easily exploit the resources. The routes to China are easy. The nations share a border and while that narrow mountainous route is a possibility – more likely the Chinese would open doors through Central Asia.

If the US leaves Iraq – Iran claims the prize. If the US leaves Afghanistan, the prize goes to China. The US can prevent this if it keeps its troop presence in these countries. If over the years ISIS and other insurgents kill a few dozen Americans a year and if the Taliban is able to shoot down some helicopters and kill some American soldiers – the truth is that price is more than worth it to the architects of the American Empire. Just keep 'supporting the troops'. They'll never vocalise it but in their book, such a price is really a bargain. It costs almost nothing. They don't care about the soldiers. They're literal pawns.

They don't care about oppressed women. They don't care about democracy. These are all smokescreens and propaganda tools. This is about empire and it's about resources – controlling what's there and controlling who gets them – and who doesn't.

Trump doesn't understand these things. His intuitions are more in line with those of the American heartland. Unless he sees the gold-in-hand he doesn't see the point. Trump doesn't care about dead soldiers either but since he has no understanding of geo-politics, strategic posturing or planning he sees no point in any of it – and by ending these wars he scores points with his base – a base he wants to continue to expand into a wider (and very lucrative) movement.

The Establishment will certainly try to stop him – most likely through bureaucratic obstruction. They will make sure some troops remain and then a Biden administration will quietly and incrementally increase the numbers to a sufficient level.  Some are even attempting to make an appeal that is certain to tug at the consciences of those who were part of the Vietnam era. Trump's withdrawal is a signal of defeat. It's a retreat without dignity. It's abandoning the field. This resonates with a lot of people who don't ever want to see the US withdraw in defeat again – as it did in Vietnam. But this too is just a public relations tactic. The panic in the Washington Establishment isn't about ending the wars with dignity. It's about perpetuating them and making sure the US keeps a strategic beachhead in the Middle East and on the fringe of Central Asia – a strategy which also works to contain Iran.

Trump also may go out with a 'bang' as once again there indications that he and Netanyahu are planning something – some kind of operation directed against Tehran. Would Trump start a fire and walk away, leaving the mess for Biden – to show him up? Do you doubt it? He cares nothing about the country or the lives of other people. He'll lash out because it makes him feel good. Because he wants victories to proclaim. Whether they're real or not makes no difference. Truth is what he says it is and sadly that's also the case for tens of millions of Americans who are part of his cult.

These wars are tragic but part of the tragedy is the endless deluge of lies. But the truth cannot be told. The public would never have it. And that's why in so many ways democracy itself is a sham – doomed to fail.