These are mostly points that have been touched on over the past year and even well before the war erupted in February 2022. However, some of these points demand revisiting as the dynamics continue to change and the implications of this war are becoming more pronounced and profound. The Ukraine War is affecting global politics and economics but it's also starting to look like the opening chapter in what history may reckon a much larger war of consequence – even possibly a world war. There are certainly those clamouring for it. Perhaps some readers are tired of hearing about Ukraine but in reality one can barely discuss anything right now that touches on geopolitics or the economy without discussing the war in Eastern Europe.
There are many things to address and it's hard to argue that
any one point is critical as they are so often interrelated. And yet some stand
out, especially those the Western media seems determined to avoid.
First we must consider, how much longer will the unity last
in Europe?
Hungary's Viktor Orban recently called for Ukraine to stand
down, much to the ire of his EU and NATO partners. Is Orban really just
pandering to the domestic audience within Hungary as some have suggested? Is it
just grandstanding and therefore such statements are of no real consequence? Could
it be that contrary to this view, his posture in fact represents not just a
geopolitical stance – but strategic long-term thinking?
The US is clearly trying to perpetuate and extend the war
through a campaign of fear and manipulation and yet it's also evident that not
everyone is one board. As a member of the Visegrad Four (V4), Orban's Hungary
has long been charting a semi-independent course, often at odds with the EU
leadership in Brussels. On the contrary, fellow V4 member Poland has clearly gone
'all in' with regard to the Atlanticist-NATO war on Russia, while states like
Hungary are remaining cautious and independent. Even states like Italy (a
member of not just the EU and NATO, but the G7) face internal squabbles over
this issue which threatens to tear their fragile political order apart.
V4-member Slovakia's government has recently agreed to send MiG fighter jets to
Ukraine (along with Poland) but the politics surrounding the war and the level
of commitment to arming Kyiv remain volatile and could change in the near
future. As I've touched on previously, the V4 bloc seems to be in danger of
fragmentation. It can hardly be called a bloc anymore as it no longer seems
united.
NATO-member Türkiye has never been fully on board with the
campaign and while Ankara has acquiesced to Finnish membership in the military alliance,
they continue to block Stockholm's accession leading to continued strain – a
point further exacerbated by Ankara's NATO-defiant relationship with Russia and
Erdogan's recently expressed desire to join the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO) – a bloc that in many respects has been established to
counter NATO and American interests in Eurasia.
These issues among others represent simmering tensions and
near points of conflict, and the longer the war continues the more difficult
it's going to be to keep everyone on board.
Orban retains no small degree of scepticism regarding both
NATO and the EU and should these organisations fragment or fail, or should
Hungary find itself outside them – the reality is Budapest will be looking for new
sources of energy and trade and neither Beijing nor Putin's Russia are going to
brow beat his government for failing to properly appreciate sodomites, or for
not being democratic enough.
But there are other indicators as well that point to the fact
that the US agenda rests on the edge of a knife. The US-led and instigated G7
price cap on Russian oil is being circumvented and clearly European firms are
involved in this process. Some have covered their tracks by relocating their offices
to Dubai, but it's evident that for all the rhetoric, propaganda, and moral
posturing – there are many companies (and likely governments) within Europe
that are quietly ignoring the sanctions regime. They are pursuing their own
interests and while the various governments support the war and the weapons industry
is booming, there is an ever present reticence to bow to US wishes in this
regard. It represents a quiet defiance when it comes to Washington's mandates. This
is but another indicator pointing to the fact that when it comes to the Russian
sanctions regime – the US has suffered a substantial defeat. Attempting to flex
its muscle and project its power, it has been found wanting. The robust foreign
policy of the Biden administration has been able to undo some of the damage
brought on by Trump – but not everyone is fully convinced of Biden's claim that
America is 'back'. The world is changing and nations also weigh their own
interests. The United States expects its allies to fall on their swords at Washington's
behest, but these days fewer seem willing to do so than what was seen during
past decades. But it's clear enough the US still holds immense sway in some
quarters.
Strong circumstantial evidence indicates that Germany's Olaf
Scholz is helping to cover-up America's sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines,
which is surprising giving his affiliation with the historically (not so
pro-American) SPD and the potential harm this action caused to Germany's
economy. One has to wonder why the most powerful economy in Europe (and its
Chancellor) remains so beholden to maintain Washington's bogus narrative?
And yet at the same time we see figures like France's
Emmanuel Macron who in service to the interests of the financial class is
pushing his pension reforms through, even while his economy is ailing due to
inflation – a reality made much worse by the war in Ukraine. Indeed the rise in
interest rates meant to counter this inflation and to tamp down the strength of
the labour market is generating great economic stress and has played a part in
banks starting to face insolvency and failure. And while Macron's on board with
the war agenda and the French weapons industry also stands to profit – he
(almost alone among NATO leaders) continues to speak to Putin and work toward a
solution that might end the war. Some commentators suggested that with the
removal of Merkel, Macron would become the most powerful politician in Europe
and given the course of recent events – the argument has some basis. Despite
the fact that he faces tremendous domestic opposition, he appears stronger than
someone like Scholz.
All of these things are being taken into consideration as
Washington weighs its next move. The war it would seem is at something of a
turning point and there are indications which suggest Washington wants to
escalate. However, this must be weighed with regard to the on-the-ground realities
within Ukraine and whether or not it is losing the war of attrition. Despite
Western media reports that it's the Russians who are the end of their rope –
there are strong indications that it is in fact Ukraine that is reaching its
limits.
Also, Washington must consider whether an escalation will in
fact run the risk of breaking NATO – already there are elements within Europe
that will be dissatisfied, whatever the outcome.
The impact of the war is widening and you can be sure some in
Washington are more than a little concerned regarding the recent
Chinese-brokered peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Tehran. Aside from the
fact that it renders America as less than essential to Middle Eastern
geopolitics, an unheard of scenario since the end of World War II, such a peace
combined with Riyadh's budding relationship with China could represent a threat
to the dollar as these nations and others might be tempted and even emboldened
to start breaking with the Petro-dollar scheme and embrace something like the
Yuan – a move Beijing has been planning for some time. Such a move would be
considered intolerable to Washington and is likely playing a part in the US
push for war with Beijing.
Even Zelenskiy bows to China, unwilling to alienate or
antagonize Beijing. It's clear that many US allies are no longer willing to
snub the Chinese government apart from Taiwan and a handful of small
US-dependent states within the sphere of the Americas.
The BRICS framework is playing no small part in blocking
American efforts to break the Russian economy and in fact the backlash and
accompanying inflation (as mentioned) has played a part in the interest rate
hikes that are now starting to take out Western banks and risk putting the
Western financial system at risk – driving leaders like Macron to act before a
real crisis hits. It's certainly the most precarious moment since the 2008 financial
meltdown and recession. For all the efforts and weaponised sanctions, Russia's
economy has not contracted to the levels predicted and even stands ready to expand.
The BRICS nations (but in particular Beijing) are at the centre of this – and
this also helps to explain why the US is pushing so aggressively for war with
China. By some metrics BRICS even stands ready to surpass the G7 – a sign of a
new bipolar world. The US can crow about the 'rules based order' and 'liberal
democracy' all it wants. These are just euphemisms for the mechanisms of empire
created by Washington at the end of World War II – the rules being Washington's
rules, which it can dispense with it as it sees fit. The concern isn't for
rules or democracy, a point Washington has repeatedly made clear by means of
its foreign policy. This is about power, control of the world and its
resources. Ukraine is but the flashpoint in what is already a global struggle.
It's been interesting to note Western commentators opining on
the behaviour of BRICS-member South Africa over the past year. Unwilling to
condemn Putin's invasion and even engaging in military exercises with Russia, Pretoria
hasn't broken with its longtime American ally but clearly the relationship is
weak and loyalties are divided. South Africa is looking more to its BRICS partners
than the nations of the G7, to Moscow and Beijing as much as it is Washington.
Also, one must consider that BRICS stands ready to expand
with nations like Argentina and Iran making application, but even more
critically nations like Egypt, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia are considering membership.
These nations have been at the core of US power projection in the Middle East –
key satrapies in its empire, even if Ankara under Erdogan's AKP has been
something of a 'rebel' province for many years now. Again, it's hard to imagine
Washington letting this happen without taking action – action that increasingly
looks like war. Control of the global economy and the scramble for resources
are areas of conflict that overshadow what is happening in Ukraine – or rather
the events in Ukraine are bringing these other issues to a head.
As repeatedly stated, the Trump era was revelatory for many
of the second and third tier nations of the world. The ugliness of the American
Empire was on display as well as its fragility. China is on the rise and the US
looks poised for an internal collapse. No one is burning bridges – at least not
yet, but confidence in the US has been eclipsed if not broken and with other
options on the table – the fear Washington once commanded has been diminished.