Atlanticism represents a historical anomaly – Europe under subjugation from an outside power. For many decades this was limited to Western Europe but with the collapse of the USSR, the United States extended its reach through NATO and other mechanisms to include all the former Warsaw Pact nations and portions of the former Soviet Union itself.
While the notion of Atlanticism is packaged in terms of alliance and partnership, the paradigm assumes another euphemism – American Leadership. But the leadership in question is not a case of primus inter pares or first among equals. No, it's cast in terms of yet more euphemisms – American Exceptionalism and Indispensability. In other words, Europe is subjugated to the leadership and interests of the United States. The European states while ostensibly autonomous are nevertheless controlled in terms of trade, foreign policy, and questions of military defense. They are satraps or under the old Roman imperial model – client kingdoms.
There are endless metaphors one could employ to describe the arrangement between America and its European subjects and the truth is the paradigm always contains a degree of dynamism. Sometimes it's like a relationship of lord and vassal. In other instances it's a case of big brother and one of younger weaker siblings, and at other times the relationship is best described as that of a mafia godfather and his caporegimes.
The problem is when the empire is mismanaged, resentment grows. When the high-ranking underlings are mistreated, a seed of bitterness is planted. There is a way that things are done and when there's a breach of simple respect, it produces umbrage and offense. And when the underlings become powerful in their own right, not only do they want autonomy, they will eventually challenge the godfather.
In the early days, NATO was so dominated by the US, that the European powers still emerging from the wreckage of the war had little hope of challenging US supremacy – though it was Charles de Gaulle who recognized the arrangement for what it was – a mechanism for American domination. And he resented it and nearly paid for his resistance with his life as the US collaborated with internal elements that wanted to see him dead. While success (or domination) in France was limited, that is until the ascent of Nicholas Sarkozy in 2007, the US scored many resounding victories throughout the rest of Europe during the Cold War and after, manipulating politics and in not a few cases orchestrating the removal of leaders.
The US passed through a relatively weak period in the 1970's, so the threat of US domination was less of an issue for a season, but then came Reagan and the military build-up of the 1980's – as well as a new attempt to up the nuclear ante in Europe. This produced resentment in many European quarters. Then the Soviet Union collapsed, the Cold War ended, and the European Union finally emerged – the promise of decades of diplomacy and negotiation, it finally took wing in 1993 and by 1999 the Euro currency was officially launched.
And the US did not like any of it – though many have forgotten this. The EU's overall population is bigger than the United States and we've reached a point the US feared – the European economy as a whole is now more or less equal to that of the United States. The average per capita income is still lower than the US, even though parts of the EU already exceed the US in terms of buying power and standard of living. As the EU's economic might continues to grow it will not just be a rival to American power – this rivalry is certain to turn adversarial and then run the risk of a real conflict.
As its economy rivals the US, Europe will have its own interests that will sometimes fall outside that of Washington and it will want to pursue its own foreign and military policies. This is already starting to happen even as the US attempts to block such moves and efforts.
The US has long dreaded this moment and to the horror of US praetorians, the Trump era was actually accelerating the pending crisis. Trump antagonized the Europeans and gave them every reason to pursue autonomy. Biden has curtailed this tendency and trajectory by means of NATO expansion, the Ukraine War, and through liquefied natural gas (LNG) but as that war stagnates – the tensions are going to quickly re-emerge.
Throughout the Cold War the United States often treated its allies (or subjects) with contempt. It manipulated their politics, funded terror within European borders and frequently stabbed its allies in the back – or expected them to fall on their swords. This can all be explained in terms of Exceptionalism and Indispensability which (though core concepts within the Atlanticist framework) many European leaders find offensive and ridiculous.
We've seen another instance of this recently. After the US blew up the Nordstream pipelines – and virtually everyone knows this is the case, the US more or less twisted Europe's arm into accepting American Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). After investing huge sums of money and re-tooling their economies to make it all work, Biden recently suggested the US may restrict exports. This is how America treats it allies – with contempt.
You can only imagine the outrage within the corridors of power in places like Brussels and Berlin. After investing millions, the US is willing to put this all at risk so Biden can pander to a political bloc during an election year. And the Europeans are just supposed to take it – and like it. There are also real fears about energy supply and the needed infrastructure, but on a personal level how many will take a financial hit if the US reduces supply? Such a crisis is likely to generate political upheaval in these countries as well.
Thankfully for the countries of Europe, there are (at this point) some other options and yet such moves only increase European autonomy – something America does not really want to see.
Are we to believe Biden's statements are really motivated by environmental concerns? It may be a factor, but there's got to be more to it – a political angle.
As far as the allies go – they are once again to fall on their swords for the sake of US interests. It's nothing new.
And yet how long will this continue? Europe is looking at America as something unstable and a Trump victory in 2024 will put NATO on a rather shaky foundation as he's already suggested the US will not honour its Article V obligations. Without that, Europe is on its own.
Needless to say his jokes about encouraging Russia to invade Europe if NATO members don't meet their financial obligations are far from being helpful or reassuring.
And they know that with a Trump victory they are on their own and as a consequence European leaders have been planning for it. From the Aachen Treaty between Paris and Berlin to the growing calls for a European Army – to now this Federalisation plan, Europe is planning for the day when Atlanticism is dead and the EU is a rival superpower. Such a federalisation scheme will unite Europe and grant it more ability to act independent of Washington as well as respond to a crisis in a more timely and flexible manner. The leadership of the EU will be empowered and able to act. They're preparing for the inevitable new multi-polar order that is already emerging. America had its chance to create a unipolar order and they threw it away.
https://www.politico.eu/article/a-federalized-europe-isnt-in-americas-interest/
The Politico article is written by someone associated with the Right-wing of the Atlanticist movement and its critical content is not surprising in any way. Attempts by Europe to consolidate power will be met with hostility. Some might even take the essay as something of a warning.
Everything is chummy as long as the Ukraine War continues and Putin is perceived (or sold to the public) as a threat. Trump brought the EU-US problems to the fore – Biden has put them temporarily on the backburner. But the tensions and issues are still there, and the rivalry and the coming (if inevitable) conflict can be clearly seen hovering in the background. And as the Ukraine War fizzles, the looming problem of EU-US relations can be seen on the horizon once again. This is not to say the EU and US are going to end up in a war anytime soon but they will increasingly become rivals and unless something changes, the already ossifying alliances will wither and perish. And while Washington will remain close to the UK – Brexit resulting in a scenario in which US interests are no longer represented (by proxy) in Brussels. The French, Germans, Italians, and others can go their own way. The US has tried to use the V4 Bloc but this too has largely fragmented and is not nearly as effective as London once was. In many ways the V4 alternative has been wrecked by the other means to save NATO and Atlanticism – the Ukraine War.
European politicians are using the Ukraine episode and Hungarian obstructionism as an excuse to push forward these measures which eliminate the individual nation-veto, and allow power to consolidate in Brussels.
It's clear this think-tank author is hostile to this trajectory and subtly falls back on Exceptionalist assumptions to argue against it. Everyone will be watching the course of American politics throughout 2024 – and respond accordingly. For Europe, increased power and autonomy are the only logical course even if it means a breaking with the post-war order created by American architects and their many collaborators within Europe – some who believed in it and others who became believers when allowed to profit from it.
The article criticises Paris and Berlin for their self-interest – though it's not presented in exactly those terms. They're not quite rebel satraps but in need of correction. It's clear the author wishes to raise the alarm within Washington's power centres as this 'problem' is re-emerging. Biden put a bandage on the wound inflicted by Trump, but the wound itself has not healed.
The argument that the US supplies and provides European security is often invoked – especially by those on the American Right that are bitter toward Europe's 'insubordination' and argue (in self-serving terms) that the US couldn't have the social programs seen in Europe because it had the 'burden' of 'security'. In other words the Europeans owe everything to America and should grovel in gratitude.
The truth is that many Europe did not see American military presence as security but generating insecurity – trapping Europe into the status of a frontline state, making it the central battleground in a war with the Soviets. Today, the security argument/appeal doesn't carry as much weight which explains why the US and its European cronies are so desperate to argue that Moscow is a threat and the need to invest all out in Ukraine. The Ukraine War has given NATO (and Atlanticism) a new lease on life – and yet it may in the end just be a flash in the pan. As the war in Ukraine stagnates and fizzles so is the renewed zeal for Atlanticism and the new energy surrounding NATO.
With a population of 450 million and an economy that is rivalling the United States and by some metrics surpassing it – the fundamental assumptions of Atlanticism are in jeopardy. And in a multi-polar world the US will not only find China to be a threat but increasingly the EU.