For years commentators have spoken of the decline of America and what it would look like. Others (including myself) have argued that the American Establishment may opt for war as a means to escape this deterioration and reassert the largely failed project of post Cold War US hegemony.
The unipolar dream which seemed possible and even probable in
the 1990's and in the aftermath of 9/11, had by the end of the Bush years all
but collapsed. With the US economy struggling and both Russia and China in a
position of resurgence, the Obama administration was marked by America's
continued failures and bungled 'adventures' on the international stage, and as
such it largely failed to arrest this decline. And then along came Donald Trump
and the further dismantling of the US global order along with a significant
weakening of US power and both the ideals and mechanisms of Atlanticism.
Washington's relationship with its satraps and allies was strained almost to
the breaking point and more and more countries in the developing world began to
turn away from the United States. And this was only exacerbated by the tumult
surrounding the US election and Trump's failed coup attempt. At the end of
2020, it looked like America was singing its swan song.
Biden has hardly been a robust leader. Feeble to be sure and
wounded by the optics of the (geopolitically calculated) Afghanistan pull-out,
he has nevertheless been the political face of a strong resurgence on the part
of the US Establishment and certain Praetorian elements. In creating the conditions
for and ultimately provoking the Ukraine War, the US has embroiled Moscow in a
quagmire and within less than two years, Washington under Biden has rebuilt
NATO and forced its leaders back into compliance. Atlanticism is back with a
vengeance and while there are still divisions and tensions within the alliance,
the United States has secured major victories on this front – scoring huge
successes for its energy industry and isolating and weakening Russia like never
before. Its arms industry is on the cusp of a great bonanza and not only has
NATO found a new lease on life, it's set to expand.
And yet the cracks in the American system are still there for
all to see. Despite these victories the overall crisis has not abated. The US
can slowly implode or it can expand and project its energy outward, relying on
war to regenerate its economy and reunify its sharply divided populace. This is
it would seem the great hope of the American ruling class.
And while the US Establishment has battled over whether or
not to focus its energy and belligerence toward Moscow or Beijing, the Biden
Administration has both boldly and recklessly decided to engage both fronts and
even now the world is at risk of descending into a world war. Should the
situation in Europe begin to go sideways it's not hard to imagine scenarios in
which intra-European conflict could erupt. The Balkans are once more the most
likely culprit or catalyst but a war there has the potential to spread and
unleash tensions within the wider region. And at this point, Moscow has every
reason to feed and foment these conflicts. What was once a broad strategy has
become a pressing need and an attractive option.
The US continues to provoke Beijing and now with the potential
Pelosi visit, Washington has embarked on a path of sheer recklessness. Whether
Beijing simply flies directly over Taiwan in an act of threat and intimidation
or decides to directly engage Pelosi's entourage in the air – it's sure to
escalate tensions. The fact that US forces are moving toward the region won't
help and the already complicated theatre will become that much more volatile
and subject to human error and emotional response. To say the stakes are high
may be cliché but it is no less than the truth.
One hopes the Pelosi visit won't turn into another Sarajevo a
la 1914 – the spark that lights the fires of world war.
The US policy toward Taiwan has been schizophrenic for many
years but is in fact simply hypocritical. The US was close to Taiwan in the
aftermath of the communist victory on the mainland in 1949 but Cold War
geopolitics led Nixon to abandon them in the early 1970's. Flipping Mao-led China
over into the American column was worth it or so he thought. And yet many
(especially on the Right) were outraged at the time and this ire has returned
in the 2000's especially as China has moved from becoming a rival to being
perceived as an outright threat. Trump did much to pour fuel on this once
smoldering fire and it is once more a raging inferno.
The US officially backs the 'One China' policy but it has
always kept the backdoors open with Taipei and has for all these years quietly
backed and aided the regime and this has only increased over the past two
decades – at times becoming all but openly done. For China which has assumed a
position of considerable power and now pursuing its own international policy wants
to rollback the claims of the US Empire in East Asia. The re-assertion of US
control and alliance with Taiwan, right off the coast of the mainland is
unacceptable, as indeed the US has always been hostile to the regime in Havana
and would react with great violence were Russia, China, Iran, or any other
nation to form a hostile alliance with say the Dominican Republic, or Mexico.
The US wouldn't stand for it. And though the Cold War is long over, the US
continues to pursue a hostile policy toward Cuba even though the island hasn't
been a threat for decades. Just the fact that it's led by a remnant of the
Castro regime is enough.
At this point all Cold War era peace paradigms are
effectively ended. All the mechanisms of restraint which sought a modus vivendi between the powers have
been broken. The US-Russia treaty-based restraints on nuclear weapons have been
torn up mostly by Washington or at its instigation, and the paradigm which
guaranteed peace with China is effectively dead.
We are entering a period of great peril – perhaps in some
respects more dangerous than the Cold War during its highest periods of tension
and danger prior to détente. In the 1960's, the world faced the missile crisis
and the spectre of nuclear war. In the 1930's it was the threat of fascism and
world war. In 1914, the danger was entangling alliances and the calculus of
war. It led to a kind of domino effect, a chain reaction that quickly escalated
into global conflict and within a short time turned into a nightmare which also
became the backdrop for the Second World War twenty years later. All three of
these scenarios and settings are pertinent and have application to the present
situation.
The US Establishment is run by madmen – made worse by the
nation's internal politics and the endless drive of the avaricious beasts that
sit atop its unstable economy. You have hawks within the GOP that are recklessly
pushing for war and have pounced on Biden with the talk of a Pelosi visit to
Taiwan. If she goes, it means an escalation which they're happy to see. If she
doesn't, they will attack the administration as weak and unwilling to stand up
to Beijing. They are more than willing for people to die in order to score
political points. And if war breaks out and goes badly, they're happy enough to
see this happen as it will re-open the doors to political ascendancy. These are
some deranged and evil people and cannot by any metric be deemed patriotic as
their only interest is self-interest. They seem more than willing for the
nation to suffer ruin just so they can seize the reins of power.
But the masters of the US Empire (who largely transcend the
petty political squabbles and theatre that is the US system) are also mad as
they have (it would seem) chosen the war option over competition and the
inevitability of decline. This is how the US Empire is to be saved. It must
take on and take out its main rivals. The US economic system is at stake and so
it's to be war.
Russia post-1991 has never been a true rival. With a
second-tier economy, the nation (though nuclear armed) is far weaker than it's
made out to be. But its geostrategic importance cannot be overstressed and it
is in possession of vast resources. Control of Russia is critical to
controlling Eurasia and it opens the doors back into the critical theatre of
Central Asia – and the dream of unipolarity. The dreams of the 1990's Neo-Cons
are still very much alive. They've been battered, dismantled, and in many ways
deconstructed but they're alive nonetheless and they're no longer on the fringe.
The road to success is simply that much harder and yet these people are willing
to pursue victory no matter the costs in terms of human life and suffering.
The US has been pushing for war with Russia and China both
for well over a decade and while the Right continues to paint Biden as weak and
feckless, he nevertheless presides over a machine that is pursuing their
agenda. It may not be with the kind of aggressiveness or abandon they would
like but it's being pursued and it's a warning to all of us. Victory will have
terrible consequences for the world and yet so will defeat.
It's hard to see a happy ending to any of this. I suppose we
once said the same thing about the Cold War and it ended with a whimper instead
of a bang. And yet, the long view understands that the events of today are in
no way disconnected from the events of that epoch. It was just a chapter in a
still unfolding story – the continued fallout of the cataclysm that took place
between 1914 and 1945.
War and rumours of wars characterize this age. We needn't
fret nor fear but we would do well to understand. This is all the more true
because as things continue to escalate the madness sets in and given the
compromised state of the American Church you can be sure the propaganda will be
effective and the nationalist idolatry that is deeply rooted in American
Christianity will be on full display. In many respects the apostasy is already
ubiquitous and the ethical collapse (and the functional rejection of the New
Testament) is well advanced.
This is a dangerous hour in so many ways. Let's pray for
peace and hope that cooler heads prevail. In other words, that Providence is
merciful. But regardless, our faith will stand even if it seems that the whole
world and much of the Church has lost its mind and sold its soul. The lies will
know no limits.