As previously mentioned, the explosion in Beirut was quickly
capitalised on by France's Macron – the Americans are absent, and thus other
Western powers like the French are stepping in. Macron as the former colonial
power has inserted itself into the Lebanese situation and is already floating
an overhaul of the Civil War settlement which established the sectarian blocs
that rule the country. Despite this settlement, in practical terms, oligarchs
control the government and Hezbollah
controls large sections of Lebanon's Northeast and South and a political
shake-up could mean a challenge to Hezbollah's control – the very thing Macron
and others would like to see.
Iran for its part is likely to boost support for Hezbollah as
Israeli, American, and Gulf Arab opposition to them intensifies. The Americans
in particular are bitter about the fact that Iran and Russia played an
essential role in ruining their regime change project in Syria.
The assassination of Qasem Soleimani continues to loom large
as does continued Israeli actions against Iranians and Hezbollah fighters in
Syria.
There are many suspicions regarding the August 2020 Beirut
explosion. Not everyone accepts the fertilizer narrative. Others believe the
Israeli's were behind it. Some argue it was a Hezbollah weapons depot. CNN (to
no one's surprise) even tried to float a story blaming it on the Russians.
And now add in the fact that in August 2020, the UN Security
Council utterly rejected US attempts to extend sanctions (an arms embargo) on
Iran. Russia and China voted against the measure and to the astonishment of
Washington the European nations (France, Germany and the UK) abstained – a
major slap in the face to Washington and yet another signal of Europe pursuing
an independent policy with regard to Iran and the Middle East. Given Iran's
recent missile tests on mock ups of a US aircraft carrier, the rejection of
Washington was particularly insulting. Germany for its part is undoubtedly
expressing some displeasure over continued US pressure to drop the Nord Stream
2 pipeline project. Berlin is demonstrating that it can use the tools of
diplomacy too.
The region is coming to a boil. Syria has survived but Libya
and now Lebanon are ready to explode and this could unleash a wider regional
war. There are also those that would still like to return to the Syria
question. The Lebanon explosion was described as a Hiroshima moment for the
nation but that would be incorrect. A closer analogy (as some have pointed out)
would be that of Chernobyl. They're right, but not merely for Lebanon, but for
the region as a whole. It's a harbinger of a collapsing order. The chain
reaction that started in 2003 is about to undergo a painful metamorphoses – a
new game board and orientation for the Middle East, North Africa and the
Eastern Mediterranean.
This new setup, this new arrangement of alliances has fairly
shallow roots and it isn't hard to imagine it all breaking apart if the
shooting starts. The final outcome is anyone's guess. Iran will certainly step
up its regional profile as forces are starting to openly ally against it. While
they've had historically decent relations with France the move by Macron sends
a clear signal that the West is ready to move against Hezbollah. We may see the
next wave of paramilitary terrorism coming out of the Shiite sector.
The rules have changed, the pieces have been moved and
there's more players involved – and thus more danger. Interestingly for the
first time in decades the US is taking a back seat. The Americans could quickly
reassert themselves but Washington under Trump is just not a serious contender
in the region – at least in terms of steering the ship. Some will celebrate
this and others despite a dislike for Trump and American imperialism will
lament the stabilising influence of Washington. Without it, the region might
quickly spin out of control. The fact that this all coming to a head as the US
faces its own internal political crisis – makes the timing all the more
interesting.
Bush unleashed chaos on the Middle East by launching an imperialist
war in the name of American security after 11 September 2001. Iraq was but a
phase in a series of planned Neo-Con wars and regime change projects. In some
respects their plans were thwarted – but interestingly in another sense their
agenda marched on even through the Obama era.
Obama attempted to rectify the raw unilateral ugliness of the
Bush era by re-casting America's role. Subsequently he launched his own wars in
Syria, Libya and Africa in the cynical name of humanitarianism. ISIS provided public
justification for a time but it also thwarted Obama's plans to pivot toward
China and after 2014 his struggles with Russia continued to pull his
administration back into the Middle East.
Trump's administration is largely marked by absenteeism. This
is not to say that the United States has abandoned its imperial posture or its
strong presence in the region but Trump has no direction to his policy, no
grand strategy governing his moves. His policy is ad hoc, intuitive and
sometimes reckless. As such he is sleepwalking into a regional war. The US is
by no means disentangled and if war breaks out in Lebanon, Washington will be
all but forced to play a part but not on its own terms. If fighting breaks out
between Turkish and Egyptian forces in Libya and then as a result if Greek (or
even French) ships fire on the Turks – the situation could quickly spin out of
control and without US leadership, NATO might falter and fall apart.
Trump's weakness and ineptitude also makes him all the more
easily manipulated, especially by political leaders that are far more savvy and
cunning than Trump can ever hope to be. One thinks first and foremost of
Netanyahu but there are also figures like bin Salman and even Egypt's al Sisi.
I hardly lament the weakening of US power or the breaking of
NATO but those who cheer on such developments – be careful what you wish for.
And for those who think Trump has made America great again – they're doubly
deluded as they never understood the nature of its power to begin with and
continue to support the one politician that more than anyone else in modern
history has stripped America of its power and influence. The real outcome of
his policies in terms of domestic economics were only beginning to be felt when
the Covid crisis broke out – which exposed the fundamental weaknesses of the
now ailing economy – an economy that is not going to easily bounce back.
There are elements within the United States Establishment at
cross purposes with the EU, the Mitsotakis government in Greece and France's
increasingly aggressive posture toward Turkey. And not everyone in the US is
willing to stand with and back al Sisi. A war will bring the foreign policy
divisions within the US political order to a head, even to a point of crisis.
Truly it's a recipe for chaos and while humanly speaking
there's much to be concerned about we trust in the grace of God and understand
that whatever happens is in accord with His will. That said, we still ought to pray,
strive for truth, expose lies and proclaim life and hope. Christians,
especially the many blind and misled Christians who sit mesmerised by their
bought and paid for and highly politicised leaders will also be caught up in these
events as indeed they already are. There should be a witness to truth and
reason out there – even if no one wants to listen.
As far as Biden goes I'm not sure he has the power to stop
the momentum, let alone the will to do so. According to Trump if Biden wins, we'll all be speaking Chinese. But on a more serious note, the latter part of 2020 will prove
critical for the future of the Middle East.